MJMiracles Jar

How we rate claims

Every rating answers two separate questions — because mixing them up is how this subject usually goes wrong.

1 · The miracle meter

If the facts are true, could nature do this? Scored assuming every documented fact holds — even for hoaxes. Real fairy photographs would score high here; the hoax is the next bar’s job. For providence stories the question becomes: was the timing more than coincidence?

2 · The evidence bar

Did it happen as reported? Records, adversarial scrutiny, independent sources, named witnesses, contemporaneity — and direction matters. A confession or exposure drives this bar toward zero no matter how thick the file is.

The headline number

The two bars multiply: headline % = miracle meter × evidence. That product is exactly the probability a genuine miracle occurred here — it can’t be high unless both the event would defy nature andthe record says it really happened. No bonus points, no benefit of the doubt, never 0% or 100% — certainty isn’t earned in either direction.

The six tiers

Gold — the disc closes
Silver — M72 · F55
Bronze — M50 · F75
Not yet rated
Disproven — M75 · F3

A readable map of the two bars. Thresholds are published so you can check our work — and argue with it.

See the Gold-standard cases and both Top-10 boards →

Gold standard

Meter ≥ 70 and Evidence ≥ 70

Clearly miraculous if true, and strongly evidenced that it happened. The whole mission is making this list longer — honestly.

Silver — promotable

Meter ≥ 60 and Evidence ≥ 40

Clearly miraculous if true, but the record is thinner. Better documentation could promote it — these are our research priorities.

Bronze — contested

Meter 41–69 and Evidence ≥ 40

A decent record and a genuinely contested mechanism — the honest middle where serious people can disagree.

Explained

Meter ≤ 40 and Evidence ≥ 40

It happened — and nature accounts for it. These are not failures; many are the best good-news stories in the catalog.

Unproven

Evidence 10–39

The record simply can't carry the claim in either direction. Most old legends live here, honestly labeled.

Disproven

Evidence < 10

Confessed hoaxes, exposed frauds, and claims the evidence flatly contradicts. Publishing these is what makes the rest credible.

Worked example: a Gold-standard case

Antonietta Raco — primary lateral sclerosis resolved after a 2009 Lourdes pilgrimage, recognized as the 72nd Lourdes miracle in 2025. Miracle meter 72 (PLS has no documented spontaneous-remission mechanism — though rare PLS-mimicking conditions keep it short of certainty), evidence 88 (a 16-year inquiry, 17-of-21 vote by an international medical committee, the strongest documentation in the modern record). 72 × 88% ≈ 63% headline — Gold standard. High on both bars is rare: only four claims in the catalog manage it.

Worked example: the Cottingley fairies

The 1917 fairy photographs score a 75 on the miracle meter — genuine photographs of fairies would be extraordinary by any standard. They also score a 3 on evidence, because the photographers confessed: the fairies were paper cutouts. 75 × 3% ≈ 2% headline, Disproven. A high meter on a disproven claim isn’t a contradiction — it’s the system refusing to pretend fairies would be boring.

The full working rubric — sub-signals, anchors, version history — is maintained openly and revised as we calibrate. Spot an error in a rating? The evidence ledger on every claim shows exactly what the number rests on. More about the project →