Is Chain 357 a real miracle?

Common questions

Is Chain 357 real or fake?

Miracles Jar's verdict is Explained: it happened — likely coincidence. It happened — best read as remarkable timing, not the miraculous. On the evidence, the record is strongly attested.

Has Chain 357 been explained?

The event appears to have happened, but a natural explanation accounts for it — the leading account is coincidence & the law of truly large numbers. It reads as remarkable rather than miraculous.

What is the evidence for Chain 357?

Miracles Jar weighs 5 sources for this case. Points that support the claim: Every chain requires a first mover who gives a kidney to a stranger for nothing; Hart's act, and the roughly 250 altruistic donors the registry had logged by 2015, are the input no algorithm produces. Points that cut against it: The arrangement of 35 strangers' kidneys each arriving when needed is the designed output of matching-market algorithms — the application for which Alvin Roth shared the 2012 Nobel — not an improbable coincidence.

What is the natural explanation for Chain 357?

The leading natural account is coincidence & the law of truly large numbers. With enough trials, the wildly improbable becomes expected. The trick is almost always the size of the denominator nobody counted. The full breakdown shows where that explanation holds — and where it stops.

When and where did Chain 357 happen?

It is said to have occurred January 6 – June 17, 2015 in 25 transplant centers across the United States (Minneapolis to Madison, Wisconsin).